AresMUSH
A New Breed of MUSH Server

FS3.3 - Dice Mechanics

For those who care about the nitty-gritty about what the Ability Ratings actually mean in terms of chance of success, this article is for you.

Base Mechanic

The basic FS3 mechanic is Attribute + Skill number of 8-sided dice against a target number of 6.

Routine Roll

On a routine roll (no modifiers), here is the chance of getting at least one success at various Ability Ratings.

Total Dice Chance of Getting at Least 1 Success
1 37%
2 60%
3 75%
4 84%
5 90%
6 94%
7 96%
8 97%
9 98%
10 99%

Notice that it doesn’t take many dice to get a high chance of success. You might wonder why one would even bother to raise a skill higher than that. Here’s why…

Hard Roll

With a -2 modifier, things get very different.

Total Dice Chance of Getting at Least 1 Success
1-3 37%
4 60%
5 75%
6 84%
7 90%
8 94%
9 96%
10 97%

Higher ratings insulate you against modifiers, letting you have a good chance of success even when the going gets tough.

Multiple Successes

Also consider the chance of getting 2 or more successes (a “Good Success”) on the roll at various ratings.

Total Dice Chance of Getting at Least 2 Successes
1 0%
2 14%
3 31%
4 48%
5 61%
6 72%
7 80%
8 86%
9 ~90%
10 ~96%

Higher ratings give you a better chance of getting multiple successes, which is particularly important when you start dealing with opposed rolls.

Opposed Roll

Chance of ‘A’ Winning or Drawing

  vs B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A                          
1   80.9 65.4 52.9 43.1 34.6 28.0 21.1 16.8 12.9 10.5 8.1 6.5
2   85.0 72.5 61.6 51.4 43.0 35.2 28.2 23.1 19.6 15.3 12.7 9.5
3   89.4 78.8 69.4 60.0 50.5 43.2 36.2 30.6 25.3 21.4 17.3 13.6
4   92.2 83.3 74.9 66.2 57.2 50.7 42.7 37.8 32.0 26.9 23.3 18.7
5   94.1 86.9 79.3 71.9 64.7 57.0 50.1 43.6 37.1 33.2 28.4 24.6
6   95.6 89.4 83.5 76.4 69.1 63.6 57.0 50.9 44.6 39.6 34.4 29.7
7   96.9 92.7 87.2 80.4 74.6 68.8 61.4 56.7 50.4 45.0 39.2 35.2
8   97.4 93.8 89.7 85.0 79.0 73.4 67.6 61.9 56.0 49.6 44.8 41.2
9   98.2 95.4 92.0 87.5 82.9 77.7 72.3 65.9 61.3 55.4 49.8 44.1
10   98.6 96.4 93.4 89.5 85.1 81.8 75.9 71.1 66.2 60.0 55.2 50.4
11   99.1 97.4 94.5 91.7 88.1 83.4 79.6 74.1 69.8 64.9 59.8 55.2
12   99.2 97.9 95.9 92.9 90.2 86.9 82.2 78.3 73.6 69.1 64.1 58.9

Chance of ‘A’ Getting a Solid Victory

  vs B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A                          
1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3   1.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
4   3.8 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
5   8.5 6.4 4.9 3.9 3.2 2.6 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.6
6   13.5 10.7 8.9 7.1 6.2 4.5 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.1
7   19.8 16.0 13.4 11.3 8.9 7.3 5.8 5.1 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.0
8   26.6 22.8 18.7 15.6 13.1 10.5 8.7 7.8 5.9 4.4 3.9 3.0
9   34.5 29.2 25.6 20.7 16.7 15.8 12.0 10.6 8.9 7.2 5.5 4.7
10   41.0 36.0 31.0 26.4 22.4 19.3 16.4 13.9 12.1 8.7 8.4 6.5
11   48.8 42.4 37.3 32.8 27.5 23.9 20.4 17.4 14.8 13.2 10.7 8.9
12   55.2 49.0 43.2 38.3 33.1 29.3 24.6 21.8 18.3 16.3 14.0 11.8

Chance of a Draw

  vs B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A                          
1   62.5 52.1 42.2 34.5 27.7 22.0 17.9 14.2 11.7 9.6 7.1 5.6
2   52.0 46.3 40.1 35.2 29.3 24.6 21.2 17.2 14.4 12.0 9.6 8.1
3   42.4 40.3 37.7 34.1 31.3 26.4 23.4 19.8 17.5 14.3 12.5 10.0
4   34.5 34.9 33.8 32.7 31.1 26.7 24.6 21.4 20.1 16.8 14.8 11.8
5   27.5 29.7 30.3 30.3 29.1 27.5 24.7 23.1 20.5 18.6 16.1 14.0
6   22.2 25.5 26.4 28.0 26.6 26.7 25.0 23.9 22.0 19.6 18.3 16.1
7   17.5 21.1 23.7 24.9 25.4 26.2 24.7 23.6 22.8 21.1 19.0 17.5
8   14.7 16.7 19.9 21.1 23.7 24.2 23.8 23.7 22.2 21.2 19.8 18.1
9   11.4 15.0 16.7 18.8 21.0 21.2 22.8 22.1 22.0 20.8 19.8 18.8
10   9.3 11.8 14.6 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.8 20.7 21.1 20.3 20.3 18.2
11   7.1 10.0 12.6 14.5 16.2 17.7 18.3 19.5 19.2 19.8 20.5 19.4
12   5.4 8.0 10.1 12.4 15.4 16.1 16.9 18.5 19.0 19.4 18.7 18.6